国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）季报：底部区间，沪镍或震荡上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price in this quarter showed an overall range - bound oscillation. It is expected that in the future, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will continue to fluctuate. If relevant policies are introduced to reverse market expectations, the valuation center may gradually move up [2][49][50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, nickel showed an overall range - bound trend with reduced price fluctuations. Nickel futures prices basically oscillated within a price range of 126,000 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower end [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - LME and SHFE Inventory: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable upward trend after hitting bottom. As of late September 2025, SHFE inventory was 29,834 tons, and LME inventory was 230,586 tons [11]. - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Imports from the Philippines: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines by China shows seasonal fluctuations. As of September 19, 2025, the port inventory was 9.7606 million tons [15][16]. - Electrolytic Nickel Price: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak oscillation trend since this year, closing at around 123,060 yuan/ton in late September [20]. - Nickel Sulfate Price: As of September 25, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 29,130 yuan/ton [22]. - Nickel Iron Import Volume and Price: On September 25, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 960 yuan/nickel [28]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - Stainless Steel Price and Position: Stainless steel futures prices showed an oscillating pattern, with an oscillation range of 12,200 yuan/ton - 13,400 yuan/ton [32]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: According to data released by WIND, on September 19, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 446,100 tons and 147,300 tons respectively [35]. - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production: Relevant data on the production of power and energy storage batteries are presented in the report, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [40]. - New Energy Vehicle Production: Relevant data on new energy vehicle production are presented in the report, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [45]. 3.3 Outlook - The nickel price in this quarter showed an overall range - bound oscillation. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were relatively stable. LME nickel inventory was high and continued to accumulate rapidly. The nickel ore market had firm prices. The nickel iron market had weak trading and prices, oscillating in the bottom range. The nickel sulfate price has recently rebounded, and whether there will be medium - term improvement remains to be further observed. The fundamentals of stainless steel have not improved significantly. Currently, the peak season is not prosperous, downstream demand is weak, and the inventories in Wuxi and Foshan are at high levels but have decreased from the peak [49].