地缘局势影响油价或将震荡反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak US crude oil demand and concerns about global supply surplus, international oil prices experienced continuous weak and volatile adjustments in Q3. However, the Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut in September, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities, and the EU's plan to increase sanctions on Russia limit the further decline of international oil prices. Technically, US WTI crude oil prices may rebound with volatility [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - International oil prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment in Q3 due to weak US demand and concerns about supply surplus. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 decided that producers will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October. The market was caught off - guard by the plan to resume the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October after the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut, which had a negative impact on the oil market. After September, the peak oil demand season ended and refinery maintenance increased, further suppressing oil prices [1][5]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand - OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand forecast and slightly raises the 2026 forecast. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA reports that global oil inventories are surging at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap is widening as supply expands and demand growth slows. The IEA raises the daily supply increments of OPEC and its allies for this year and next by 370,000 barrels and 520,000 barrels respectively [7]. - The OPEC+ decision on September 7 has a negative impact on the oil market, and future production plans are uncertain. As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil daily production was 13.501 million barrels, up 19,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of US online drilling oil wells reached 424 as of the week ending September 26, the highest since July [10][12]. - US refinery operating rates decreased slightly, but crude oil processing volume increased. As of the week ending September 19, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased moderately, and gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries may change global trade flows [2][16]. China's Crude Oil Supply - Demand - China is the world's largest oil importer and the second - largest oil consumer. In 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased steadily. In August, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, up 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, up 7.6% year - on - year. From January to August, China imported 376 million tons of crude oil, up 2.5% year - on - year. Russia is China's largest source of crude oil imports [22]. - As of September 24, the operating load of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In the future, the operating load may first decline and then rise, and the supply of gasoline and diesel will fluctuate accordingly [24]. 3. Technical Analysis - In Q3, US WTI crude oil futures prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment at a low level. Since September, WTI crude oil futures have shown strong support at around $60 per barrel, and prices may rebound with volatility [25].