东南亚消费行业8月跟踪报告：各市场股指纷纷收涨，印尼泰国及新加坡通胀放缓

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the Southeast Asia consumer sector, indicating a general upward trend in consumer valuations across various markets [2][5]. Core Insights - Inflation rates have shown a decline in Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore, while Vietnam continues to experience robust retail growth [3][4][25]. - Consumer confidence in Indonesia has slightly decreased, reflecting gradual adjustments rather than a sharp decline, with the index at 117.2 in August 2025 [17]. - The retail sales in Vietnam have demonstrated strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in August 2025 [39]. Economic Data Summary - Indonesia: The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.1%, with manufacturing as a key driver [13]. The CPI in August 2025 increased by 2.31% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in inflation across various categories [14]. - Thailand: The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 2.8%, with a notable decline in the CPI by 0.79% in August, marking the lowest level since January 2024 [21][19]. - Singapore: The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 4.3%, with the CPI falling to 0.5% in August, the lowest since January 2021 [28][25]. - Vietnam: The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 7.52%, with a strong manufacturing sector contributing significantly [34]. Market Performance Summary - In August 2025, major market indices in Southeast Asia showed positive performance, with Vietnam's market rising by 12.5% [11][12]. - Consumer sectors in Indonesia outperformed the overall index, with essential and discretionary consumption rising by 14.9% and 15.7%, respectively [5][11]. - Valuation levels for consumer sectors have generally increased, with Indonesia's essential consumption PE at 2% and discretionary at 70% historical percentiles [5].