Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the context of the stock - bond seesaw effect and the new regulations on public fund sales, interest rates have been oscillating and adjusting since September, and market sentiment has become more cautious. Debt funds have continuously sold long - term credit bonds and bought short - term credit bonds around 1Y since the first and middle ten days of this month. This week, ultra - long - term credit bonds saw a significant catch - up decline. Currently, with the pressure of wealth management products returning to the balance sheet gradually clearing and interest rates approaching the top of the periodic range, ultra - long - term bonds may gradually enter the area of attention [4][44]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 165.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 184.3 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 598 billion yuan, an increase of 15 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 432.9 billion yuan, an increase of 199.3 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 8.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 69.7 billion yuan compared to last week [9]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 47.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.7 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 126.4 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was - 8.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 184.6 billion yuan [9]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance quantity of urban investment bonds increased by 25, and the redemption quantity increased by 27; for industrial bonds, the issuance quantity increased by 23, and the redemption quantity increased by 50; for financial bonds, the issuance quantity decreased by 20, and the redemption quantity decreased by 12 [11]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance rates of AAA industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased. The issuance rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds rose above 2.8%, and the issuance rate of AA financial bonds increased by 72BP compared to last week. Specifically, the weighted average issuance rates of AA and AA + industrial bonds increased by 33BP and 24BP respectively, while those of AAA industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased by 9BP and 19BP respectively [17]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 96.3 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 292.8 billion yuan, an increase of 36.2 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 369.9 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 537 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 24.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4 billion yuan [18]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds increased overall, while that of asset - backed securities decreased slightly. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds were 1.87%, 2.02%, and 3.53% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.23pct, 0.25pct, and 0.07pct. The turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09pct [19]. 2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities all adjusted to varying degrees, with the adjustment of medium - and long - term bonds being significantly greater than that of short - term bonds. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 5BP, 4BP, and 4BP respectively; those of 3 - 5Y increased by 7BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively; and those of over 10Y increased by 12BP, 11BP, and 9BP respectively [23][25]. - Taking AA + 5Y bonds of each variety as an example, the yields of non - publicly issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 9BP; that of AA + 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 10BP; those of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds increased by 8BP and 17BP respectively; and that of AA + 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 10BP [26]. 2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA construction and decoration and AA + electronics industries widened significantly, while the fluctuations of credit spreads of other industries and ratings did not exceed 10BP. Specifically, the credit spread of the AA construction and decoration industry widened by 11BP, and that of the AA + electronics industry widened by 22BP [27]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all widened to varying degrees. For example, the credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds widened by 5BP, 6BP, 7BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [32]. - By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different ratings and in different regions all widened to varying degrees, and the credit spread of AA + urban investment bonds in Heilongjiang widened by more than 10BP. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Jilin, Yunnan, Shandong, and Sichuan; those of AA + urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Qinghai; and those of AAA urban investment bonds were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Tianjin, and Jilin [33]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds widened to varying degrees compared to last week. For example, the credit spreads of 1Y and 10Y private - placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds of AAA -, AA +, and AA all widened [36]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with different maturities and ratings all widened to varying degrees, and the widening amplitude of 5 - 10Y bonds exceeded 10BP. For example, the credit spreads of 1Y and 10Y Tier 2 capital bonds and bank perpetual bonds of AAA -, AA +, and AA all widened [38]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - A total of 16 bond issues of 5 entities had their implied ratings downgraded, including 8 issues of Nanshan Group Co., Ltd., 4 issues of China National Foreign Trade Trust Co., Ltd., and 2 issues of Xiamen International Trust Co., Ltd. The "19 Qidi G2" issued by Qidi Environmental Technology Development Co., Ltd. was extended [3][41]. 4. Investment Suggestion - This week, there were 1826.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the open market, 6 billion yuan of central bank bills were issued, and 30 billion yuan of MLF was withdrawn. The central bank conducted a total of 2467.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 60 billion yuan of MLF, achieving a net injection of 880.6 billion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 dropped from 1.40% at the Monday close to 1.25% at the Friday close, and the overnight capital interest rate remained in a low - level oscillation [43]. - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA construction and decoration and AA + electronics industries widened significantly, while the fluctuations of credit spreads of other industries and ratings did not exceed 10BP. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds all widened to varying degrees [43].
节前情绪偏弱，信用承压调整：信用分析周报（2025/9/22-2025/9/26）-20250928
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-09-28 14:08