集运指数（欧线）观点：震荡市-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current view on the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is a volatile market [1][4] - For the 2510 contract, if the price increase is implemented, the delivery price will likely be within 1160 points; if not, it will likely be within 1100 points (closer to 1000 points) [6] - For the 2512 contract, due to the late Chinese New Year in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure, it should not be over - estimated, and it is expected to fluctuate widely between 1550 - 1800 points, with a preference for unilateral waiting and seeing [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In September, the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 6, and the weekly average capacity remained at 296,000 TEU/week. In October, the weekly average capacity was slightly revised down to 265,000 TEU/week. In November, the weekly average capacity was 308,000 TEU/week, with the number of blank sailings remaining at 5, and the number of pending sailings increasing by 1. The weekly average capacity in November increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month [4][57] 3.2 Demand - The basis for the spot market price increase is that there has been a 10 - 20% rolling rate for more than 2 consecutive weeks, but the ships during the National Day holiday generally do not meet this condition, and there are large differences among shipping companies. The loading performance of Gemini and Cosco is better, while that of the PA Alliance is poor [5] 3.3 Valuation - The price center for weeks 40 - 41 dropped to the range of $1380 - 1420/FEU, and the SCFIS index was approximately in the range of 960 - 1000 points (±30 points). Some shipping companies have announced price increases for late October, but the probability of the price increase being implemented is uncertain [5] 3.4 Historical Freight (Monthly) - The document provides historical freight data from 2009 - 2024 for different months, including data for January - December each year, and shows the month - on - month and year - on - year changes [10] 3.5 Price - The document tracks the spot freight rates of major shipping companies and the SCFIS and SCFI indices, showing their changes over time [16][18][19] 3.6 Demand Side - In August 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate declined from 7.2% in July to 4.4%. Exports to the US further declined, while exports to the EU continued to grow at a high rate, and exports to ASEAN increased significantly [32] - In July, Asia's container exports to Europe, North America, Central and South America, and within Asia all showed different degrees of change in terms of volume and year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [45][46][47][48] 3.7 Supply Side - The document details the shipping schedules and capacity changes of European lines from September to November 2025, including the number of blank sailings, overtime ships, and pending sailings [57][58] - The speed of container fleets of different sizes has slightly decreased, and the number of idle fleets of different sizes as of September 12 is also provided [71] - The document shows the congestion situation of container ships in ports around the world, including China, the UK, Europe, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, North America, etc. [73][74][75]