全球资产配置每周聚焦（20250919-20250926）：美股科技板块资金出现大幅流出-20250928

Economic Indicators - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the US in Q2 2025 was significantly revised up to 3.8%, from a previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023[6] - The strong GDP growth has cooled global interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October now at 89.8%, down from 91.9%[3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6643.70, showing a decline of 0.31% over the week, while the Hang Seng Index and KOSPI led declines in the Asia-Pacific region[8] - The technology sector in the US saw a significant outflow of $4.33 billion, while China's technology sector experienced an inflow of $3.55 billion[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, US equity markets saw inflows of $8.26 billion, while Chinese markets attracted $5.48 billion[15] - Developed markets experienced notable inflows, with US fixed income funds seeing an inflow of $18.85 billion[15] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 4.60%, and COMEX gold rose by 2.83% during the week, indicating a stronger inflation outlook[3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.55%, currently standing at 98.2, remaining below the 100 mark[9] Valuation Metrics - The risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ decreased to 49% and 45%, respectively, indicating a decline in perceived investment quality[3] - The PE percentile for the S&P 500 and DAX is at 93.0% and 89.5%, respectively, suggesting high valuations compared to historical averages[3]