格林大华期货早盘提示-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - IF (Flat), IH (Flat), IC (Weak), IM (Weak) for stock index futures in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The stock market adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and defense is the main strategy. For futures trading, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index. For stock index options trading, it is advisable to wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock period before the holiday [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the major stock indices in the two markets adjusted oscillatingly, with trading volume decreasing. The CSI 300 index closed at 4550 points, down 43 points (-0.95%); the SSE 50 index closed at 2941 points, down 11 points (-0.40%); the CSI 500 index closed at 7240 points, down 100 points (-1.37%); the CSI 1000 index closed at 7397 points, down 108 points (-1.45%). The top - rising ETFs were real - estate ETF, power ETF, military - leading ETF, green - power ETF, and agriculture and livestock ETF, while the top - falling ones were game ETF, data ETF, and 5G ETF. Among the sector indices, the top - rising ones were chemical fiber, forestry, wind - power equipment, white - goods, and aviation - equipment indices, and the top - falling ones were consumer electronics, industrial Internet, components, cloud services, and game indices. The settled funds of CSI 1000 and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 2400 million and 100 million yuan respectively [1] 3.2 Important Information - By the end of August, China's public - fund total scale exceeded 36 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the fifth time this year. The scale of equity funds reached 5.55 trillion yuan, increasing by over 630 billion yuan, and the scale of hybrid funds increased by over 330 billion yuan [1] - The AI investment - advisor market scale is expected to soar from $61.75 billion in 2023 to nearly $471 billion in 2029, with an increase of over 600%. About 10% of retail investors have used chatbots for stock selection, and half of them hold an open attitude. The investment portfolio selected by ChatGPT has a return rate of up to 55%, far exceeding that of professional funds [1] - The founder of Yushu Technology said that the company's robot algorithm has been iterated several times this year, and a 1.8 - meter - tall humanoid robot is expected to be released in the second half of the year. The average growth rate of domestic intelligent - robot related enterprises in the first half of this year was 50% - 100% [1] - JPMorgan believes that driven by the huge demand for high - performance memory in AI computing, the DRAM market is entering a "once - in - a - lifetime four - year pricing up - cycle" from 2024 to 2027 [1] - Xiaomi founder Lei Jun emphasized that Xiaomi is transforming from an Internet company to a hardcore technology company. It will invest 2000 billion yuan in R & D in the next five years [1] - Meta announced the integration of the AI video - creation platform Vibes into the Meta AI app, allowing users to create, discover, and share short - video content [2] - OpenAI released a new benchmark test, showing that its GPT - 5 model and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.1 are "close to the work quality of industry experts" [2] - Tesla's "true out - of - the - box process 2.0" patent has been approved, which can shorten the production cycle to about 10 seconds, with a car coming off the production line every 5 seconds and significantly reducing production costs [2] - Costco's profit and revenue in the last fiscal quarter both exceeded expectations, reflecting the resilience of the warehouse - membership retail model [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The major stock indices adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The scale of equity and hybrid funds increased in August due to the rising stock market. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, believing that China has global competitiveness in AI, robotics, and biotechnology. According to a HSBC survey, investors' optimism has risen, and China has become the preferred stock - investment market [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - The major stock indices adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The scale of equity and hybrid funds increased in August due to the rising stock market. Morgan Stanley expects that Alibaba Cloud will add over 3 GW of data - center capacity annually from 2026 to 2032, bringing strong growth to infrastructure suppliers. International capital is increasing positions in China's technology sector. The semiconductor equipment industry remains highly prosperous. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more profit - taking funds flowing out on Monday. The box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and defense is the main strategy. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index, as large - financial stocks in the CSI 300 index have fully corrected, and the technology sector remains highly prosperous [2] - For stock index options trading, it is advisable to wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock period before the holiday [3]