宏观审慎角度看长期收益率

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining ample liquidity while preventing the use of liquidity for long - bond speculation. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate's fluctuation center may approach the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but reasons for a downward trend are insufficient [3]. - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The US GDP growth may slow down. The US PCE inflation expanded in August, but the sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. - The producer price index continued to decline month - on - month. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in September 2025 was slightly lower than that in September 2024 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Prudence Perspective on Long - Term Yields - The third - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee proposed to strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, observe and evaluate the bond market from a macro - prudent perspective, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining liquidity while preventing long - bond speculation [3]. - The 1 - year Treasury bond yield approaching the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate may reflect the market's expectation of no interest rate cuts or hikes. The DR007 rate's fluctuation center is higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. To cooperate with fiscal policies, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate may further approach it. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but a downward trend is unlikely [3]. 3.2 US GDP Data Revision and PCE Price Increase - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. Given the slowdown in non - farm employment growth, US GDP growth may slow down [3]. - The year - on - year increase in the US PCE price in August expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. The expansion of PCE inflation was mainly due to the rebound in the nominal growth rate of personal consumption, but the consumer confidence index in September dropped. The sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. 3.3 Producer Price Index and Commodity Prices - In the week of September 27, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.94% month - on - month and 25.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 32.56% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.10% month - on - month and 13.24% year - on - year [3]. - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.50% and 1.02% respectively on average week - on - week. The average weekly price of LME copper spot increased by 0.74%, and that of aluminum decreased by 1.95%. The copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - The domestic cement price index increased by 2.03% week - on - week, the South China iron ore index decreased by 0.04% on average week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.16% week - on - week, the inventory of rebar decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased by 0.18% week - on - week. The producer price index in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 5.11% year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 21.8 million square meters per day, slightly lower than the 22.9 million square meters per day in September 2024 [3]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data, including domestic long - and short - term interest rate indicators, US non - farm employment and economic growth, US personal consumption growth, and high - frequency data's week - on - week changes [3][11][14]. - It also shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, and high - frequency traffic data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [6].