股指期货：节前平稳度过，长假控制仓位

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the market showed a relatively strong performance. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the social services, comprehensive, and commercial retail sectors led the losses. Despite different interpretations of the financial system leaders' press conference at the beginning of the week and no release of favorable policies, the index soon recovered from the adjustment and continued to rise in the middle of the week. The message environment remained stable over the weekend with improved corporate profit data last month and the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting, which is beneficial for the pre - holiday market to pass smoothly. - This week has only two trading days, followed by an 8 - day holiday. Although the expected impact of events such as the US government shutdown and US non - farm payroll data during the holiday is limited, due to the long holiday and many uncertainties, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Stock Index Performance: - Global stock indices showed mixed performance last week. In the US, the Dow Jones index fell 0.15%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq index fell 0.65%. In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.74%, the German DAX index rose 0.42%, and the French CAC40 index rose 0.22%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.69%, and the Hang Seng index fell 1.57%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%. [10][16][17] - Among domestic major indices, most rose last week. The CSI 300, CSI 500, and other indices also had different performances. [15] - In terms of industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, there were also mixed gains and losses. For example, in the CSI 300 index, the information sector rose 5.25%, while the consumer sector fell 2.67%. [19] - Futures Market: - Among the futures contracts last week, the IM2509 contract had the largest increase, and the IC2509 contract had the largest amplitude. - The trading volume of stock index futures declined, while the open interest increased. - The basis (futures - spot) of stock index futures and the cross - variety ratio also showed certain trends. [21][25][26] - Index Valuation: - As of September 26, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 300 index was 14.04 times, and that of the SSE 50 index was 11.68 times. The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 index was 34.45 times, and that of the CSI 1000 index was 46.86 times. [27][28] - Market Liquidity: - The two - market margin trading balance and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the figures. - The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had net investment. [30][31] 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively. [5] - Trend Strategy: Go long on dips. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2510 main contract is between 4407 and 4634 points; the IH2510 main contract is between 2872 and 3004 points; the IC2510 main contract is between 6987 and 7455 points; the IM2510 main contract is between 7100 and 7578 points. [5] - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM). [6] 3.3 Factors to Watch Domestic PMI data and US non - farm payroll data. [4]