金信期货日刊-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai Silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short - term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the silver price is expected to be supported [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to experience a small - scale oscillatory recovery next week [5]. - The gold market can continue to be bullish as the market starts to trade the October interest - rate cut expectation [10]. - For iron ore, one can conduct high - selling and low - buying operations as it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [13]. - For glass, a low - buying strategy can be maintained as it is in an oscillatory upward trend [18]. - The soybean oil market should be treated with a bearish view due to high inventories [22]. - For pulp, a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range can be considered as it is in a low - level oscillation [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver Futures) - The price of the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed at 10,632 yuan/kg on September 26, with a single - day increase of 2.27% and a trading volume close to one million lots [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and market expectations of interest - rate cuts in the next two meetings reduce the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions drive safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: The global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The surge in industrial silver demand driven by photovoltaic installations and limited production expansion due to by - product output exacerbate the shortage [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line. The basic endowment insurance fund has achieved positive returns for 8 consecutive years, with an average annual investment return rate of 5.15%. US chip stocks were heavily sold [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After a three - day adjustment, gold showed a strong upward trend and reached a new high, so it can continue to be bullish [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron - water output is expected to remain high. Steel mills are replenishing stocks before the National Day. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories are decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventories suppress price increases [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and it is in a low - level oscillation. One can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [25].