贵金属日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term setbacks in interest - rate cut expectations won't change the Fed's medium - term easing pattern. The new Fed chair in 2026 is likely to implement significant monetary easing, which will impact the Fed's policy independence. The rise in precious metal prices reflects the dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy. Due to the resilience of US economic data, silver with stronger industrial attributes shows a more robust price performance [3]. - Considering the macro background and precious metal positions, the current strategy suggests buying on dips, especially paying attention to the upward potential of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 818 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10152 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Price Changes: Shanghai Gold rose 0.88% to 862.50 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 3.90% to 10936.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.33% to 3796.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.07% to 46.63 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.2%, and the US dollar index was 98.16 [2]. - Position Changes: The positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly. The positions of major foreign gold ETFs rose 3.79% to 2261.6 tons this month, and major foreign silver ETFs rose to 27945.91 tons. The total position of Shanghai Gold rose from 422,000 lots at the beginning of September to 454,000 lots, and that of COMEX Gold rose from 417,000 lots to 515,000 lots. The total position of Shanghai Silver rose from 865,000 lots to 912,000 lots, and that of COMEX Silver rose from 153,000 lots to 167,000 lots [2]. 3.2 Strategy View - Price Data: The closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. are provided. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 852.90 yuan/gram, up 0.11% from the previous day [4]. - Investment Strategy: Based on the macro background and precious metal positions, it is recommended to buy on dips, especially focusing on the rise of silver prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are given [4]. 3.3 Key Data Summary - Gold: For COMEX Gold on September 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3789.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 206,100 lots, down 19.14%; the position was 528,800 lots, up 2.43%; the inventory was 1242 tons, up 0.06%. Similar data for other gold - related products are also presented [7]. - Silver: For COMEX Silver on September 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 46.37 dollars/ounce, up 1.97%; the position was 165,800 lots, up 1.75%; the inventory was 16496 tons, up 0.08%. Similar data for other silver - related products are also provided [7]. 3.4 Charts and Data Sources - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX Gold price and real interest rate, the price and trading volume of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, etc. The data sources are mainly WIND and the research center of Wukuang Futures [9][13][20]. 3.5 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - Gold: On September 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 9.15 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 16.76 dollars/ounce [50]. - Silver: On September 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 0.06 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference data is also presented [50].