研究所晨会观点精萃-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US core PCE price index remained unchanged in August, the US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth in August were lower than expected, and domestic risk appetite decreased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation [3]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. For commodities, black metals will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US 8 - month core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: In August, consumption increased by 3.4% year - on - year, 1 - 8 month investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, all lower than previous values and market expectations. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will promote long - term funds to enter the market. The short - term policy support has increased, but market sentiment is cautious before holidays, and domestic risk appetite has decreased. - Asset suggestions: Stock index - short - term high - level oscillation, cautiously long; Treasury bonds - short - term oscillation, wait and see; black metals - short - term oscillation, wait and see; non - ferrous metals - short - term strong oscillation, cautiously long; energy and chemicals - short - term oscillation, cautiously long; precious metals - short - term high - level strong oscillation, cautiously long [3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, and gaming sectors, the domestic stock market declined. Domestic economic data was lower than expected, and domestic risk appetite decreased. The market focuses on domestic incremental policies, and the short - term upward drive has strengthened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Last Friday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell, with low trading volume. Near the holiday, the risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the news of EU tariffs on Chinese steel products also affected the market. The real demand continued to weaken, but there were differences among varieties. The demand for rebar improved, with a 13.98 - million - ton inventory decline and a 10.41 - million - ton increase in apparent consumption this week. Hot - rolled coils accumulated inventory, and apparent consumption decreased. Steel supply remained high. The steel market is likely to oscillate within a range before the holiday [5]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rose and then fell. The daily iron - water output increased to over 242 million tons, and steel mills continued to replenish stocks before the National Day, so the demand for ore remained strong. The global iron - ore shipping volume decreased by 248 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 312.7 million tons. The port inventory increased by 169 million tons. Although the market has negative feedback expectations, the probability of actual negative feedback in the short term is low. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, with a risk of negative feedback from late October to November [7]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises decreased, and the daily output decreased. The downstream demand is expected to improve in October. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - The manufacturing PMIs of the US, the eurozone, Japan, and the UK all declined marginally. The second - largest copper mine, Grasberg, announced a shutdown, affecting about 27 million tons of production, but it has a复产 schedule, which reduces market speculation [9]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Last Friday, the aluminum price was stable. It is expected to oscillate within a narrow range of 200 - 300 points in the short term. The social inventory decreased by 2.1 million tons due to pre - holiday restocking, but the inventory will accumulate during the holiday. The de - stocking is less than expected during the peak season [10]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited [10]. 3.4.4 Tin - The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi increased to 30.13%, remaining at a low level. The supply will be more abundant after November. The demand has improved slightly, but the terminal demand is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - As of September 25, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 0.8% to 20,516 tons, and the weekly start - up rate was 50.55%. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream continued to replenish stocks. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - As of September 26, the weekly output decreased by 0.8% to 96,432 tons, and the furnace - opening rate was 38%. The social inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased. There is no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - The output in September was about 13 million tons, and the start - up rate is expected to decrease in October. The inventory remained high, and the warehouse - receipt decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is low. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the state - purchase news [12]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - The supply risk of Russia has increased, and the Middle East situation is tense, so the bottom support for crude oil remains. However, the export from northern Iraq has resumed, and OPEC may increase production next week, so the price pressure at the end of the year is still large [13]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The rebound of oil prices has driven the rebound of asphalt prices. However, the peak - season demand is over, and the surplus pressure remains. The short - term basis is declining, and the inventory is not significantly reduced. The profit has recovered, and the start - up rate has increased significantly [13]. 3.5.3 PX - PX has been oscillating weakly. The PXN spread has decreased to 206 US dollars, and the external price has been oscillating at 815 US dollars. The polyester market has declined, and PX is expected to continue to oscillate weakly with some support [13]. 3.5.4 PTA - There was news of joint production cuts, but no substantial confirmation. The medium - term supply pressure is still large. The short - term basis has increased slightly, but the processing fee is still low. The downstream start - up rate has declined, and the upside space is limited [14]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory is low, but the enterprise inventory is high. There is new production - capacity release pressure in the next two years. The downstream start - up rate is lower than in previous years, and the de - stocking is limited. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has declined. The terminal orders have increased seasonally but not significantly. The inventory has increased slightly due to the rebound of the start - up rate. The follow - up increase space is limited [16]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The inventory has decreased due to reduced imports and increased port - system utilization. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, and the price is expected to consolidate and wait for new driving forces [16]. 3.5.8 PP - The supply is expected to increase as the devices are expected to restart. The downstream demand is in the peak season but has not improved significantly. The inventory pressure is not large, but the production - start expectation and high supply suppress the market. The price is difficult to improve [16]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the orders and start - up of agricultural films are recovering. However, the supply pressure is still large, and there is new production - capacity release expectation. The overall surplus pattern remains unchanged [16]. 3.5.10 Urea - The domestic urea market has a loose supply - demand pattern. The supply pressure is obvious as the previously shut - down devices are resuming production. The demand support is weak. The enterprise inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 US Soybeans - The net short - position of managed funds in soybean futures and options has increased recently. The short - term pressure on US soybeans has increased due to Argentina's zero - tariff export, concentrated soybean harvest, and Sino - US tariff disputes. However, the harvest progress is slower than expected, and the drought in the production area has worsened, so there is support. The CBOT soybean is still cautiously optimistic [15][17]. 3.6.2 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Argentina's zero - tariff window has reduced the risk of soybean and oil - meal shortages in the first quarter of next year. The soybean arrival at domestic oil mills will shrink in the fourth quarter, and the import cost is stable. After the National Day, the inventory pressure of oil mills is expected to decrease, and the cost - driven valuation - repair market for soybean meal is mature. The supply of imported rapeseed meal has decreased seasonally, and the domestic rapeseed inventory is low. Rapeseed meal is mainly influenced by soybean meal [17]. 3.6.3 Oils - The supply of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is insufficient, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced, so the price is likely to rise. The supply - demand of soybean oil is loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the National Day. The supply of palm oil is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter, and the inventory in the production area is low. The overall oil market is stable and is expected to oscillate within a range [18]. 3.6.4 Corn - The old - crop corn inventory is low, and the new - crop corn has a high opening price. The new - crop corn harvest in North China has been delayed by weather, and the price has rebounded. The downstream feed - mill inventory is at a low level, but the replenishment sentiment is low. The futures price has a deep discount to the spot price, and there is strong support [18]. 3.6.5 Hogs - Before the National Day, the market was pessimistic, and the pig price continued to decline. The supply - demand is still in surplus in the short term, and the pig price is under seasonal pressure after the National Day. In the medium term, the pig price may stabilize and rebound when the loss deepens and the consumption peak season comes [19].