软商品日报：长假将要到来，软商品减仓观望-20250929

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years, with production expected to exceed consumption. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected [1][2]. - The cotton import is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of cotton this year is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices have the potential to rise [2]. Summary by Directory Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5780.0 yuan, and in Kunming is 5810.0 yuan. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15050.0 yuan [1]. Futures Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.35, with a change of 0.37%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.33, with a change of 0.09% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets, sugar imports have increased significantly recently [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 9464.0, with a change of - 3.36%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 3397.0, with a change of - 5.19% [1]. Data Quick View - External Market Quotes: The price of US sugar increased from 16.29 to 16.35, a change of 0.37%. The price of US cotton increased from 66.27 to 66.33, a change of 0.09% [3]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.27%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.33% [3]. - Price Difference Insights: There were various changes in the price differences of sugar and cotton futures contracts, and the basis of both sugar and cotton increased [3]. - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [3]. - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit decreased by 1.88% [3]. - Options: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0871, and that of SR601P5500 is 0.0824. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1257, and that of CF601P13400 is 0.1181 [3]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9793.0 to 9464.0, a change of - 3.36%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3583.0 to 3397.0, a change of - 5.19% [3]. Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas is affected. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating [2]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the new - season cotton growth is good. With the peak season approaching, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices may rise [2]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2].