生猪周报：出栏体重略增，猪价震荡偏弱-20250929

Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. Considering the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may still have a slight increase by December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. It is recommended to consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. Summary by Directory Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices adjusted weakly and fluctuated. On September 26, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted weakly and fluctuated [7]. - Inter - monthly Spread Changes: The inter - monthly spreads adjusted fluctuately, and the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend due to the weak spot market [8][11]. Spot End - Pig Price and Slaughter Volume: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price adjusted weakly and fluctuated [14]. - Regional Price Difference: The pig price in Sichuan was relatively weak [16]. - Fat - Standard Price Difference: The fat - standard price difference adjusted fluctuately. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may increase the weight - gain willingness of scattered farmers [18]. - Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - Breeding Profit: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight increased this week [26]. Production Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million heads. Different data sources showed different trends in August, with some showing a slight increase and some a decrease [28]. - Sow Culling Situation: This week, the price of culled sows ran weakly. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the enthusiasm for capacity reduction [30]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - Enthusiasm for Sow and Piglet Replenishment: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets ran weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. Slaughter End - Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million heads. The market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].