宝城期货甲醇早报-20250929

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being respectively: short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The overall view is that it will operate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.51% to 2364 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday, but the continued rebound was blocked by the upper 20 - day moving average [5]. Market Driving Logic - Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center. After the previous continuous decline in methanol futures prices, the bearish sentiment has been released. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. Definition of Market Trends - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it's the previous trading day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price on the current day to calculate the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory strength/weakness only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4].