宝城期货橡胶早报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view is that both沪胶 (RU) and合成胶 (BR) are expected to run weakly. With the digestion of previous macro - positive expectations and the approaching of the National Day holiday, the domestic tire industry's operating rate has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side pressure remains high, resulting in a weakening trend for both rubber types [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 沪胶 (RU) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][5]. - Core Logic: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2601 contract of domestic沪胶 futures showed an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.23% to 15,235 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [5]. 合成胶 (BR) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][6]. - Core Logic: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2511 contract of domestic合成胶 futures maintained an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.28% to 11,215 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [6].