国内远期进口大豆供应缺口收窄，豆菜粕中长期或震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of sufficient spot supply of soybean meal and a narrowing supply gap in the long - term, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be mainly in a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term [5]. - The U.S. soybeans have entered the concentrated harvesting period with normal progress. Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and most of the main producing areas will have good rainfall in the next two weeks, which is suitable for sowing. The Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal but later resumed the withholding tax on agricultural products such as grains after reaching the quota. China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of soybeans for November - December shipments from Argentina at low prices, narrowing the supply gap of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, which is a long - term negative factor for soybean meal. The China - U.S. trade relationship remains a focus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy View and Outlook - Unilateral Strategy: The pressure level of soybean meal 2601 is recommended to refer to 3100 - 3200. For options, it is advisable to go long on volatility [8]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [8]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the weather conditions in the U.S. soybean producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, the domestic demand for soybean meal, and the China - Canada and China - U.S. trade relations. Overall, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Last week, soybean meal futures were in a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to Argentina's temporary cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the planting area by 200,000 acres, raised the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and reduced the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from 290 million bushels in August to 300 million bushels [16]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a relatively low level in history. It is recommended to wait and see. The 1 - 5 price difference of soybean meal was in a weak and volatile trend, and it is also recommended to wait and see [23][25]. 3.3 Supply Side - U.S. Soybean Sales Data: As of September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [33]. - U.S. Soybean Pressing Data: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the U.S. soybean pressing profit was $3.22 per bushel, a 2.55% increase from the previous week and a 6.94% decrease compared to the same period last year [37]. - China's Soybean Import Volume: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% [40]. - China's Rapeseed Import Volume: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [42]. - China's Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Data: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [46][48][50]. 3.4 Demand Side - Pig Price and Breeding Profit: Relevant data charts of China's commercial pig slaughter price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and外购 profit are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [54][58]. - Chicken Breeding Profit: Relevant data charts of white - feather broiler breeding profit and laying hen breeding profit are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [63]. 3.5 Inventory - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of September 19, the national port soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a 5.26% decrease from the previous week and a 1.02% increase compared to last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, a 7.35% increase from the previous week and a 14.28% decrease compared to last year [69]. - Domestic Feed - Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days: As of September 26, 2025 (week 39), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 9.60 days, a 1.83% increase from September 19 and a 6.68% increase compared to the same period last year [72]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of September 19, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 41,500 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week [74].