国新国证期货早报-20250929

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 26, the three major A-share indices all pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.60%. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on September 26, closing at 4550.05, down 43.44 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 26, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1710.3, down 48.5 from the previous day [3] - The weighted index of coking coal trended weakly on September 26, closing at 1207.0 yuan, down 32.4 from the previous day [4] - For coke, port spot prices rose, with the price at Rizhao Port up 10 yuan/ton. Supply - rising coking coal prices increased costs for coke enterprises, squeezing profit margins, but production enthusiasm remained. Demand - steel mills' overall operation remained high, and rigid demand for coke increased as holidays approached, but terminal consumption was average with steel inventory accumulation, so overall restocking was expected to be limited [5] - For coking coal, prices in some regions changed. Supply - most mines in production areas operated normally, traders were actively buying, demand was good, and coal mine shipments were smooth, with online auctions generally showing an upward trend [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Last Friday, ICE raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short positions reduced to avoid risks, and the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and closed slightly lower in the night session on September 26. As of the week ending September 23, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 22,260 contracts to 168,357 contracts [5] Rubber - Due to market concerns about the impact of tariffs on the European auto industry and the holiday effect, long - position liquidation pressured Shanghai rubber futures to fall on September 26. As of September 26, Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory decreased by 8852 tons to 187,972 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5500 tons to 149,420 tons. The inventory of 20 - grade rubber decreased by 1713 tons to 47,982 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1611 tons to 42,942 tons [6] Palm Oil - On the night of September 26, palm oil futures continued to trade in a narrow range, with prices rebounding slightly from the daytime close but still within the daytime price range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line, at 9278, up 0.45% from the daytime close. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [6][7] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 26, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products after a two - day suspension. Brazil's ANEC lowered the estimated soybean exports for September from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons. Domestically, on September 26, the main soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. Chinese buyers actively ordered Argentine soybeans, improving the long - term supply situation. Currently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China is still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. In the short term, soybean meal supply is abundant [7] Live Hogs - On September 26, live hog futures trended weakly. The main LH2511 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Currently, production capacity is being released intensively, with group farms accelerating the slaughter of standard hogs and individual pig farmers more willing to sell. Traditional demand is approaching the peak season, and pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, but market consumption has not met expectations and is not enough to strongly support prices [8] Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthening, and the US dollar index has declined. China will implement more active consumption - expansion policies, and with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the outlook for the copper industry has improved, with downstream copper product production expected to pick up significantly, and refined copper demand may increase significantly. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease, and copper prices are expected to rise [8] Iron Ore - On September 26, the main iron ore 2601 contract fell 1.74% to close at 790 yuan. Iron ore shipments decreased while arrivals increased, and pig iron production remained high. As pre - holiday restocking nears the end, steel mills' purchasing pace has slowed down, and the upward space for iron ore may be limited. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [8] Asphalt - On September 26, the main asphalt 2511 contract rose 0.7% to close at 3450 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased month - on - month, social inventory continued to decline, while refinery inventory pressure increased, and shipments continued to rise. In the north, pre - holiday construction rush still supports demand to some extent, but in the south, heavy rainfall has weakened demand. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 26, the 2511 log contract opened at 806, with a low of 805, a high of 810, and closed at 808.5, with a reduction of 668 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10 - day moving average of 805. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the resistance at 815 - 820. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak. Pay attention to spot prices during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [9] Cotton - On the night of September 26, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,400 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 186 lots from the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is between 6.15 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram [10] Steel - Recently, typhoons in South China and the upcoming double - holiday have affected construction site demand. However, as the weather cools down, steel demand may recover after the holiday. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures price to rise rapidly, but now there is a lack of further upward momentum. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the futures price. Pay attention to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [10] Alumina - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments remain low, which is reflected in the domestic arrival data. Northern Chinese bauxite mines have not resumed production, and only some compliant capacities are expected to resume by the end of the year due to environmental protection policies. Although bauxite inventory has decreased slightly, the absolute inventory is still high, and bauxite supply is still abundant. Meanwhile, the weakening alumina price has increased the price - cutting intention of alumina plants. In the short term, bauxite prices may remain weakly volatile. The core factor leading the alumina price is still oversupply. Currently, domestic operating capacity remains high, and recently imported alumina from overseas has arrived in large quantities, increasing inventory and causing prices to fall both at home and abroad. In the short term, the price may trend weakly [11] Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the supply of alumina, the raw material, is still excessive, and the spot price is close to the cost line and at a low level. Electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit margins and are enthusiastic about production. On the supply side, previously replaced capacity projects have gradually been completed and put into operation, and with the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly again, and high - level operation may lead to a slight increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply. On the demand side, positive consumption - expansion policies have improved the outlook for aluminum product consumption, and the improvement of downstream production will boost aluminum demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand [11]