中泰期货晨会纪要-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries. It provides trend judgments and trading strategies for different commodities based on factors such as fundamentals, policies, and market sentiment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation, guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, and explore institutional arrangements to maintain capital market stability [9]. - Multiple new first - tier cities are researching new real - estate policies to stimulate housing demand [9]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission focused on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involution - style" competition [10]. - Seven departments issued a plan for the petrochemical industry to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in added value from 2025 - 2026 [10]. - The US 8 - month core PCE price index met expectations, and consumer spending was strong, increasing the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cuts [10]. - Trump announced new high - tariff policies on multiple imported products starting from October 1st [11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider buying on dips and operate with a shock - based approach. The A - share market is in a weak shock, and the market volume is insufficient after the August rally [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Adopt a shock - based approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to be mainly in a shock state, and positions can be reduced before the holiday [14][15]. Black Commodities - The market expects policies to have a neutral impact on the black commodity market, and the focus will return to supply - demand. The market may experience a "not - prosperous peak season," with steel demand being average during the peak season [17]. - Coal and coke prices may continue to be weak in the short term, and the focus will return to supply - demand after the Fed's interest - rate cut event [19]. - For ferroalloys, the market may have narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, and a high - selling approach is recommended for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [20]. - For soda ash, a high - selling approach is recommended; for glass, a wait - and - see approach is advised [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see at high levels; for alumina, a high - selling approach is suggested due to over - supply pressure [22]. - Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range shock state, supported by short - term destocking [23]. - For industrial silicon, it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts; for polysilicon, the market is mainly driven by policy progress and is in a wide - range shock [24]. Agricultural Products - For cotton, a high - selling approach is recommended, and it is advisable to leave the market before the holiday [26]. - For sugar, a mid - term high - selling approach is recommended, and short - term attention should be paid to market fluctuations caused by holiday funds [28]. - For eggs, it is advisable to short near - month contracts and consider a short - near and long - far arbitrage strategy [30]. - For apples, a light - position long - buying approach on dips is recommended [32]. - For corn, selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is suggested [34]. - For red dates, the market may be strong in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [35]. - For pigs, a high - selling approach for near - month contracts is recommended, with attention to position control [35]. Energy - Chemical Industry - For crude oil, it is expected to enter a weak - fundamental trading phase, with supply exceeding demand and prices likely to fall [37]. - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices, affected by geopolitical risks and expected future over - supply [39]. - For plastics, the market may have a narrow - range weak shock after a short - term rebound [40]. - For rubber, caution is needed in holding positions before the holiday, and it is affected by policy and market sentiment [41]. - For methanol, a relatively strong shock approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to port destocking [41][42]. - For caustic soda, a shock - based approach is recommended during the holiday [42]. - For asphalt, it will follow crude oil prices and is in a seasonal demand peak season [43][44]. - For offset printing paper, it is expected to be in a shock state, and a light - position long - buying or put - selling strategy can be considered [45]. - For the polyester industry chain, a light - position long - buying approach on dips can be considered in the short term [46]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, it is recommended to maintain a short - term long - term bearish view, with supply being abundant [47]. - For pulp, the market is expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to port destocking and spot trading [48]. - For logs, the market is in a shock state, and a light - position long - buying approach on dips can be considered if the price - holding is effective [48]. - For urea, a shock - based approach is recommended during the holiday [49]. - For synthetic rubber, the main contract is in a weak shock state, and caution is needed in holding positions before the holiday [51].