宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年9月29日）-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term and overall views are "oscillating", with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly". The coking coal is expected to oscillate due to increased market wait - and - see sentiment [1][5]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term and overall views are "oscillating", with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly". Coke is expected to have range - bound oscillations as there are intertwined bullish and bearish factors [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - Supply: As of the week of September 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77.2 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 thousand tons, and 2.5 thousand tons lower than the same period last year. The number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, with nearly 8000 trucks passing through in a week [5]. - Demand: The combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 112.78 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons [5]. - Inventory: This week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking plants rebounded significantly by 58.66 thousand tons to 999.07 thousand tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 5.73 thousand tons to 796.07 thousand tons, indicating that the pre - holiday restocking demand of downstream enterprises was fulfilled [5]. - Outlook: The upward driving force of coking coal futures is limited. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing, and the main contract is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - Supply: As of the week of September 26, the combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 112.78 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses expanding by 17 yuan/ton, which suppressed the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises to some extent [6]. - Demand: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.36 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 thousand tons [6]. - Inventory: This week, the coke inventory was transferred downstream. The inventories of upstream independent coking plants and intermediate ports both decreased week - on - week. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased significantly by 16.64 thousand tons to 661.31 thousand tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 5.23 thousand tons to 920.41 thousand tons week - on - week [6]. - Outlook: The fundamental driving force of coke is limited. At the same time, the policy uncertainty has decreased, and the pre - holiday market wait - and - see sentiment has increased. Coke futures are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6].