镍周报：节前扰动有限，镍价震荡-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Macroeconomic data: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - Nickel - ore market: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - Pure - nickel market: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - Nickel - iron market: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - Stainless - steel market: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - Nickel - sulfate market: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - New - energy vehicle market: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - Inventory situation: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].