钢材周报：国庆长假临近，期价震荡承压-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The trading margin and daily price limit for rebar and hot-rolled coil have been adjusted by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spot market shows weak trading, confirming the weak reality. The industry data last week was favorable, with both production and apparent demand increasing and inventory decreasing for the five major steel products. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, production remained flat, and inventory significantly decreased, while the data for hot-rolled coil changed little. As the pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills nears completion, the positive factors for raw materials have been realized and prices have declined. It is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to holiday risks. [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 7,678,373 lots and an open interest of 2,832,803 lots. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.81%, with a total trading volume of 2,616,236 lots and an open interest of 1,369,716 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 2.17%, with a total trading volume of 1,419,700 lots and an open interest of 529,740 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1196.5 yuan/ton, down 35.5 yuan or 2.88%, with a total trading volume of 6,549,970 lots and an open interest of 907,095 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1692.5 yuan/ton, down 46.0 yuan or 2.65%, with a total trading volume of 141,015 lots and an open interest of 53,441 lots. [2] Market Review - The steel futures market adjusted downward after fluctuating last week. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the Shanghai rebar price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil price was 3360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. [4] Industry News - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target for the added value of the steel industry at around 4% in the next two years. The plan proposes measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw materials. [6][7] Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts related to the futures and basis spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, production, inventory, and apparent demand, as well as the regional price differences and profits of steel products. [9][10][11]