矿端扰动不断，铜价突破上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices broke upward. The main reasons were that the performance of the US core inflation in August met expectations, boosting the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year. The dismissal storm of Cook was postponed, which lifted the US dollar index to rebound from a low level. China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed a significant year - on - year rebound, and the anti - involution policy effectively boosted market confidence. From the fundamental perspective, both Indonesia's Grasberg and Peru's Antamina significantly lowered their recent production expectations, the supply of concentrates became tighter, the expected domestic refined copper production declined, social inventories were running at a low level, and the near - month futures market returned to a flat price structure. Overall, the continuous rise in copper mine interference rate and the start of interest - rate cuts by global central banks paved the way for the upward movement of copper prices from both macro and fundamental aspects. The rebound of the US dollar index had limited suppression on copper prices. The central bank restarted reverse repurchase to provide a loose liquidity environment. The anti - involution policy in key domestic industries had shown good effects. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, social inventories were running at a low level, and there was an expectation of a slight reduction in refined copper production this month. It is expected that copper prices will enter a volatile upward trend in the short term [2][3][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price Changes: From September 19th to September 26th, LME copper rose from $9996.50/ton to $10205.00/ton, a increase of 2.09%; COMEX copper rose from 463.05 cents/pound to 476.45 cents/pound, a increase of 2.89%; SHFE copper rose from 79850 yuan/ton to 82470 yuan/ton, a increase of 3.28%; international copper rose from 70810 yuan/ton to 72870 yuan/ton, a increase of 2.91%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.99 to 8.08. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$64.90/ton to -$33.91/ton, a decrease of 47.75%, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 70 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area decreased to 641,745 tons, a decrease of 0.77% compared with September 19th. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 3250 tons (-2.20%), COMEX inventory increased by 5510 short tons (1.74%), SHFE inventory decreased by 7008 tons (-6.63%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased by 200 tons (-0.26%) [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: In the US, the core PCE in August was +2.7% year - on - year and +0.3% month - on - month, both meeting expectations. Consumer spending on non - essential goods was strong. There was a dispute over the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, and some officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU imported automobiles. In China, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to August was 0.9%. The equipment manufacturing industry played a significant role [9]. - Supply - demand aspect: Indonesian Grasberg and other mines had production problems, and the supply of concentrates was tight. The implementation of Document No. 770 was expected to intensify the shortage of domestic resources. The production of refined copper in September was expected to decrease by more than 50,000 tons. In terms of demand, the construction of power grid investment projects was limited, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was lower than the same period in previous years. New energy vehicle orders were abundant, but the copper consumption in the photovoltaic industry declined. The overall consumption remained stable, and the domestic social inventory was at a low level, with the tight - balance structure intensifying [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg copper mine suspended operations due to an accident, resulting in a significant decline in the production of copper and gold. The production was expected to return to normal in 2027. The company declared force majeure, and the insurance compensation was expected to have a deductible of $500 million and an upper limit of $700 million [11]. - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals' factory in Peru temporarily closed due to protests, and the company was working to resume normal operations, stating that it would not affect its production and cost guidance in 2025 [12]. - Argentina approved Canadian mining company McEwen Copper's $2.7 billion investment in the Los Azules copper project, which was expected to contribute $1.1 billion to exports annually. The project was planned to start producing cathode copper in 2029 [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, premium/discount trends, and other aspects of copper, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, LME copper premium/discount, etc., with the data source being iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][20][24].