企业利润修复，工业硅区间震荡

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Title: Corporate Profit Recovery, Industrial Silicon Rangeside Fluctuation 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated within a range. The main reasons were the overall cooling of the domestic industrial product market sentiment, the high - level decline of polysilicon futures with obvious support below, the significant year - on - year increase in the profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises, and the entry of the anti - involution policy effect into the implementation period. The supply side was generally stable, and the demand side had mixed performance. The industrial silicon spot market operated steadily due to the range - bound fluctuation of the futures [2][5][9]. - Overall, China's anti - involution policy effect is in the implementation period, the corporate profits at the silicon material end are continuously recovering, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits has increased significantly, the industrial product market sentiment has cooled but the price center has stabilized. Technically, the 8800 level on the futures chart still has strong support. Although the polysilicon futures' high - level decline slightly dampens short - term sentiment, the futures price is expected to maintain a relatively strong range - bound fluctuation in the short term [2][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | September 26 | September 19 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8960.00 | 9305.00 | - 345.00 | - 3.71% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 9500.00 | 9350.00 | 150.00 | 1.60% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 9300.00 | 9100.00 | 200.00 | 2.20% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9700.00 | 9600.00 | 100.00 | 1.04% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10550.00 | 10450.00 | 100.00 | 0.96% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 11050.00 | 10800.00 | 250.00 | 2.31% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 51.00 | 51.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 54.3 | 54.3 | 0 | 0.00% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro Aspect: In August, the total profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to August was 0.9%. The equipment manufacturing industry played an obvious "ballast stone" role [6]. - Supply Aspect: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained at 69%. The output in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season continued to decline, and the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. The overall supply was stable. As of September 26, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon was 310, and the overall furnace - opening rate was maintained at 38.9% [5][6][9]. - Demand Aspect: The quotation center of polysilicon moved up again, but silicon enterprises faced large inventory pressure, and the production cut in October might still be less than expected. The space for silicon wafers to support prices in the future was limited, and the market sentiment weakened. The supply and demand of photovoltaic cells remained in a tight balance, and the demand for high - efficiency cells was good. Leading enterprises at the component end showed signs of reluctant to sell, the centralized price increased slightly, but the terminal tender volume decreased, and some projects continued to postpone construction. The recycling of old photovoltaic components will become an important issue in the industry. The winning bid price range of components disclosed last week was 0.69 - 0.75 yuan/watt [2][5][7]. - Inventory Aspect: As of September 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon remained at 543,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase. After the exchange introduced the new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, and the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory [8] 3.3 Industry News - As of the end of August, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%; the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the cumulative average utilization hours of the country's power generation equipment were 2105 hours, 223 hours less than the same period last year [10]. - South Africa added about 928MW of photovoltaic installed capacity in the first quarter of 2025. It is expected that the new installed capacity this year will exceed 1.1GW in 2024. As of mid - 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in South Africa was estimated to be 9457MW. In July this year, the South African government approved six new photovoltaic projects in the seventh - round procurement, with a total installed capacity of 1290MW. The South African market is gradually adopting the scheme of matching energy storage with renewable energy, and the commercial and industrial market has good prospects, while the residential photovoltaic market shows signs of slowing down [11]. - On September 5, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the second batch of projects in the 2025 annual development and construction plan for wind power and photovoltaic power generation in Hebei Province. This batch included 76 projects with a total capacity of 7.27107 million kilowatts, including 42 photovoltaic projects with a total scale of 3.12907 million kilowatts and 34 wind power projects with a total scale of 4.142 million kilowatts [11] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon [13][14][15][17][18]