贵金属周报：金银维持强势，长假将至需防控风险-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The US inflation data released on Friday met market expectations, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts later this year, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices on Friday [2][5]. - The US core PCE price index in August rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, not hindering the Fed's rate - cut rhythm. The FedWatch tool shows an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December. There is increasing divergence among Fed officials on monetary policy [2][5]. - Overall, against the backdrop of inflation meeting expectations, the Fed maintaining a loose stance, and the imposition of new tariffs, gold is expected to remain strong. Silver is in a catch - up rally and may challenge historical highs. However, with the upcoming domestic holiday, there is a need to be wary of sharp fluctuations in overseas prices during the holiday [2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 856.06 yuan/gram, up 25.50 yuan (3.07%), with a total trading volume of 264,305 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [3]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 852.90 yuan/gram, up 12.97 yuan (1.54%), with a total trading volume of 50,644 lots and a total open interest of 211,162 lots [3]. - COMEX gold closed at $3,789.80 per ounce, up $70.40 (1.89%) [3]. - SHFE silver closed at 10,632 yuan/kg, up 661 yuan (6.63%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [3]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 10,551 yuan/kg, up 308 yuan (3.01%), with a total trading volume of 698,132 lots and a total open interest of 3,354,936 lots [3]. - COMEX silver closed at $46.37 per ounce, up $3.00 (6.92%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US core PCE price index in August rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, not hindering the Fed's rate - cut rhythm. The probability of a rate cut in October is 88%, and 65% in December [5]. - There is increasing divergence among Fed officials on monetary policy. New Fed理事Milan advocates rapid rate cuts, while理事鲍曼 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also support rate cuts under certain conditions [6]. - Trump announced new tariffs on imported drugs, heavy trucks, and furniture starting from October 1st, further boosting risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - Gold is expected to remain strong, and silver is in a catch - up rally and may challenge historical highs. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and ADP employment data, China and US September PMI, and eurozone HICP data this week, as well as Fed officials' speeches and other events [6][7]. 3. Important Data Information - The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value [9]. - US consumer spending in August increased 0.4% after inflation adjustment, exceeding the expected 0.2% [9]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected and at three - month lows [9]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone September Manufacturing PMI was 49.5, below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI rose above expectations [9]. - The final value of the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 55.1, at a four - month low, and inflation expectations were slightly lower [9]. - The US Q2 GDP final value annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, up from 3.3%, the fastest in nearly two years, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid - July, while the number of continued claims decreased slightly to 1.926 million [10]. - US new home sales in August were 800,000 units, far exceeding expectations, with a 20.5% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of new homes for sale was at the lowest level this year [10]. - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1st, and exempting some products from September 1st [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The total gold holdings of ETFs as of September 26, 2025, were 1,005.72 tons, an increase of 11.16 tons from last week, 43.22 tons from last month, and 133.78 tons from last year. The silver holdings of iShares were 15,361.84 tons, an increase of 156.70 tons from last week, 87.14 tons from last month, and 725.58 tons from last year [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures were 266,749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts from last week, and in silver futures were 52,276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts from last week [13]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and correlations of precious metals, as well as the relationships between gold prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, copper, inflation expectations, and bond yields [15][16][17].