Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Crude Oil: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - PX & PTA: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - Short Fiber: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - PR (Bottle Chip): Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - Propylene: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - Plastic PP: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - Caustic Soda: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - PVC: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - Soda Ash: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - Glass: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - Log: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - Offset Printing Paper: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - Pulp: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - Butadiene Rubber: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - Related News: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - Related News: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - Related News: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - Market Review: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - Related News: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - Related News: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - Market Review: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - Related News: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - Market Review: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - Related News: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - Related News: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - Market Review: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - Related News: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - Market Review: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - Related News: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - Market Review: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - Related News: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - Related News: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - Market Review: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - Related News: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - Market Review: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - Related News: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - Market Review: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - Related News: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - Market Review: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - Related News: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - Market Review: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - Related News: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - Related News: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-29 02:08