格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of typhoon weather in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. Downstream markets made rigid restocking purchases, but the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts, the short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5750 - 6000 yuan/ton. Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold an empty position or a light long - position in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On the night of Friday, the futures price of bottle chip PR2511 rose by 2 yuan to 5820 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 27,700 lots, a decrease of 1185 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market remained stable at 5780 yuan/ton, and the price of bottle chips in the South China market remained stable at 5860 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 323,500 tons, a decrease of 3900 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.1%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5337 yuan, a decrease of 1.5%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 189 yuan/ton, a increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [1] - In August 2025, China exported 520,700 tons of polyester bottle chips, a decrease of 58,800 tons compared with the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1] - The intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has recently increased, and the market is worried about the intensification of potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 rose by 0.74 dollars to 65.72 dollars/barrel, a increase of 1.14% compared with the previous week. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 rose by 0.71 dollars to 70.13 dollars/barrel, a increase of 1.02% compared with the previous week. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose by 0.2 to 489.1 yuan/ton, and rose by 5.9 to 495 yuan/ton at night [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the forecast in June [1] Market Logic - Affected by the typhoon in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. Downstream markets made rigid restocking purchases, but the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts, the short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw material end [1] Trading Strategy - Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold an empty position or a light long - position in the short term [1]