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能源化工日报-20250929
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-29 02:11
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the macro factors are bullish, but there is still a probability of short - term OPEC bearish news. When China faces the issue of holiday positions, long - term positions are not considered cost - effective. Short - term long positions in crude oil should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's final statement [3]. - For methanol, the supply side has a decline in start - up and lower corporate profits, with subsequent marginal increase in domestic supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals have improved marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. - For urea, the futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. - For natural rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. - For polypropylene, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For p - xylene (PX), the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For purified terephthalic acid (PTA), the supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For ethylene glycol (EG), the domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.49%, to 491.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 35.00 yuan/ton, or 1.21%, to 2918.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.16%, to 3475.00 yuan/ton. In Europe, gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while fuel oil and naphtha inventories decreased [1][2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The macro factors are bullish, but there is a short - term OPEC bearish risk. Long positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's statement [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang decreased by 2 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained flat, and southern Shandong rose by 5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 105. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 29 [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply side has a decline in start - up and lower profits, with subsequent marginal increase in supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. Urea - Market Information: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a small number of regions seeing price drops. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 5 yuan to 1669 yuan, with a basis of - 69. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 51 [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. Natural Rubber - Market Information: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit production, the seasonality usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand expectation is improving. Bears think the macro expectation is uncertain, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply improvement may be less than expected. As of September 25, 2025, the all - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.04%, and the semi - steel tire production load was 74.52%. As of September 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.1 million tons, or 1% [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract fell 38 yuan to 4897 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 157 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79%, with an increase of 2%. The downstream start - up rate was 47.8%, with a decrease of 1.5%. Factory inventory and social inventory increased [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The basis was - 49 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 117.5 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 73.2%, with a decrease of 0.20%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted start - up rate was 42.79%, with a decrease of 2.07% [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The basis was 1 yuan/ton, and the upstream start - up rate was 80.73%, with a decrease of 0.74%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 43%, with an increase of 0.08% [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 77.05%, with an increase of 2.32%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 51.45%, with an increase of 0.59% [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. P - Xylene (PX) - Market Information: The PX11 contract fell 18 yuan to 6656 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 814 dollars. The basis was 20 yuan. The 11 - 1 spread was 22 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 86.7%, with an increase of 0.4%, and the Asian load was 78%, with a decrease of 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The PXN was 209 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread was 104 dollars [28][29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - Market Information: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4646 yuan. The East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4590 yuan. The basis was - 74 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 1.1 million tons to 209 million tons. The spot processing fee rose 19 yuan to 211 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 14 yuan to 294 yuan [31]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Market Information: The EG01 contract fell 33 yuan to 4213 yuan. The East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4294 yuan. The basis was 61 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 63 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, with a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 708 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 713 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 617 yuan [34]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35].