金融期货早班车-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Medium - and long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; short - term, the market shows signs of cooling [3] - For the bond market, short - term is bullish as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 has sufficient cost - effectiveness; medium - and long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 26, A - share four major stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65% to 3828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.76% to 13209 points, the ChiNext Index fell 2.6% to 3151.53 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.6% to 1450.82 points. Market turnover was 21,661 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,257 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.38%), and public utilities (+0.35%) led the gains; computers (-3.26%), electronics (-2.75%), and media (-2.65%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,801/216/3,412 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 428, - 274, 141, and 561 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 371, - 95, +103, and +362 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 126.39, 105.11, 17.65, and - 2.18 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 12.2%, - 10.37%, - 2.77%, and 0.53% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 26%, 16%, 31%, and 50% respectively [2] - Details of various stock index futures contracts' performance are shown in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, etc. [6] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 26, the bond market rebounded. The implied interest rates of the active contracts of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds decreased compared with the previous day [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [3] - Details of various treasury bond futures contracts' performance are shown in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, etc. [8] - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot [9][10] 3.3 Short - term Fund Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the changes in short - term fund interest rates, including SHIBOR overnight rates' current prices, previous prices, prices a week ago, and prices a month ago [12] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [12] - The figure shows the domestic meso - level data tracking, based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years [13][14]