国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250929

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience repeated expectations and high - level oscillations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to show weak oscillations as raw material trends weaken [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations with repeated expectations [2][13][14]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (-1.92%). The open interest decreased by 20,811 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Jinbuba decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The RB2601 futures price of rebar closed at 3,114 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.58%); the HC2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,313 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.22%). Spot prices in major regions decreased. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed mixed trends [6][7]. - News: Multiple industry and macro - economic news were reported, including steel production, inventory changes, and export/import data [7][8]. - Trend Intensity: -1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices, basis, and spreads had corresponding changes. Manganese ore inventory in some ports increased [10][12]. - News: Multiple price quotes and procurement information from steel mills were reported, as well as manganese ore price increases from some suppliers [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased. Spot prices remained stable. Basis and spreads changed [14]. - News: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it never issued or authorized "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" notices [14]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [14]. Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of log contracts were mostly stable. Trading volume and open interest had different changes. Spot prices of various log types remained unchanged [17]. - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate on September 17 [19]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [19].