宏观周报（9月第4周）：利润改善持续性需进一步观察-20250929

Group 1: Economic Indicators - August industrial enterprise profits showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9%, compared to a previous decline of 1.7%[4] - Monthly profits turned from a decrease of 1.5% to a growth of 20.4%, primarily driven by price and profit margin contributions[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month increased by 0.7 percentage points to -2.9% compared to the previous month[4] Group 2: Market Trends - The market experienced a volume-decreasing rise last week, with an average transaction amount of 23,132 billion yuan, down by 2,047 billion yuan[4] - Small-cap indices saw a significant decline, with the small-cap index down by 1.50%[4] - The overall bond market yield rose, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.3 basis points[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Global Factors - The expectation of a domestic interest rate cut in October is increasing due to ongoing weak economic data[4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fluctuated, influenced by Powell's statements and better-than-expected economic data[4] - The U.S. announced new high tariffs on various imported products starting October 1, raising trade uncertainty[4] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The sustainability of profit improvements requires further observation due to low base effects and short-term adjustments in some industries[4] - Risks include potential weakening of the economic fundamentals, escalation of trade frictions, and rapid contraction of Fed rate cut expectations[4]