烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The caustic soda market is currently under weak real - world pressure, but cost support is strong, and the market may show wide - range fluctuations [3]. - The current caustic soda futures are affected by the spot pressure of Shandong 32% caustic soda, and there are intertwined long - and short - term expectations that cannot be falsified in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2528, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 91 [1]. 2. Spot News - On September 26, the local liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. With the approaching of the long holiday, most enterprises were eager to reduce inventory, and the short - term market was still weak [2]. 3. Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is still under pressure, but the optimistic expectation brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen due to regional arbitrage, and the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda has been greatly relieved, limiting the further short - term decline of the spot price [3]. - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a demand for 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit pattern may also lead to a decline in the inventory level of other alumina plants [3]. - Before the inventory - building starts, it is difficult to judge the gap caused by inventory - building, so the futures market is still trading the weak reality. The export situation has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the Shandong - South China regional arbitrage also supports the 50% caustic soda market. The cost of caustic soda is strongly supported by the increase in Shandong's grid electricity price in October [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].