沪铜日评：矿端偏紧但需求趋弱使铜价震荡-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to an expectation of tight supply and demand, but the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path and high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82710, down 240 from the previous value; trading volume was 174625, with a decrease of 160268 compared to the previous value; open interest was 23853, down 9473; inventory was 27662 tons, a decrease of 1105 tons; the basis was - 205, an increase of 220 [2] 3.2 SMM Copper Prices and Premiums - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82505, down 20; SMM semi - water copper average discount was - 10, down 30; SMM premium copper average premium was 80, down 40; SMM mixed copper average discount was - 60, down 45; SMM Guixi copper average premium was 100, down 40; EQ copper average discount was - 130, down 80; SMM RMB Yangshan copper average premium was 412.49, an increase of 0.19; SMM Yangshan copper (warehouse receipt) average premium was 53, unchanged; SMM Yangshan copper (bill of lading) average premium was 58, unchanged [2] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spreads - Shanghai copper near - month minus continuous - first was - 50, an increase of 50; continuous - first minus continuous - second was 20, down 30; continuous - second minus continuous - third was 0, an increase of 60 [2] 3.4 LME Copper Futures - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 10205, down 70.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 38.91, down 7.36; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 50.2, down 10.22; the Shanghai - LME copper price ratio was 8.0813, an increase of 0.03 [2] 3.5 COMEX Copper - COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 4.8275, down 0.06; total inventory was 315206, an increase of 4055 [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9800 - 10000 and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]