商品期货早班车-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but with the Fed's rate cut and conflicting outlooks, and prices at historical highs, there are risks of a market peak. For precious metals, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday. For other commodities, trading strategies vary based on their respective fundamentals [1]. - The supply and demand of various commodities show different characteristics. For example, some have tight supply, while others face oversupply or weak demand, which affects their price trends and trading strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold: The international gold price settled at $3789 per ounce, up 0.25%. The US government shutdown risk increased, consumer spending in the US in August was strong, and Chinese industrial enterprise profits rose significantly. Gold ETF funds flowed in. There is a risk of a market peak, and it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - Silver: It followed gold to reach a new high. It is also recommended to partially close positions before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price rose and then fell on Friday. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is supported by high demand. It is expected to oscillate before the lithium mine in Jiangxi is put into production, and it is advisable to consider a call option strategy before the holiday [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price is expected to oscillate between 49,000 - 54,000 yuan. Pay attention to the 11 - 12 spread [3]. - Tin: It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile view [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the rebar 2501 contract [4]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. - Coking Coal: The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2501 contract and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The US soybeans are weak, and the domestic market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The mid - term unilateral focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - Corn: The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - Cotton: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan/ton [6]. - Palm Oil: It is in a high - level oscillation, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [6]. - Eggs: The demand is weakening, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - Hogs: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [7]. - PVC: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - PTA: The PX supply is increasing, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. It is recommended to short the processing margin of the far - month contract at high prices [8]. - Rubber: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a bullish view in the medium term [8]. - Glass: The seasonal improvement is obvious, and it is recommended to go long [8]. - PP: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [8][9]. - MEG: Due to low inventory and macro - policy disturbances, it is recommended to close short positions [9]. - Crude Oil: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [9]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Caustic Soda: The main downstream unexpectedly lowered the purchase price, and it is recommended to wait and see [10].