华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 成材: The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern, pessimistic market sentiment, and lackluster winter storage [1][2]. - 铝锭: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, supported by the marginal improvement of the supply - demand pattern, the increase in downstream processing enterprise开工率, and the depletion of social inventory due to pre - holiday stocking [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content For成材 - Production Suspension: Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel producers will suspend production from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills has suspended production on January 5th, and most others will suspend production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - Real Estate Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week but a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Price Movement: The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low recently. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity is moving down, and this year's winter storage is lackluster, providing little price support [2]. For铝锭 - Macro Environment: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the US economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously expected. Traders believe the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next meeting is 89.8%, lower than nearly 92% a week ago [1]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly due to the ramping up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% last week [2]. - Downstream Performance: The aluminum cable sector was the main driving force, with the operating rate increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors also increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. However, the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry was facing challenges such as export decline and low - end product competition [2]. - Inventory: As of September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [2]. - Price Outlook: With the macro - interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled and approaching the peak consumption season, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and holiday risks [3].