海外宏观周报：美国政府关门风险上升-20250929

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, with Trump canceling a meeting with Democratic leaders and the House planning to reconvene only on October 1[1] - The U.S. has confirmed a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts starting August 1, and new tariffs on various imports, including 50% on kitchen cabinets and 100% on patented drugs, effective October 1[1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%[1] - Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and well below the market expectation of 235,000[1] Group 2: Global Economic Indicators - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, below the neutral mark, while services PMI rose to 51.4, exceeding expectations[1] - Japan's Tokyo core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, indicating stable inflation pressure[5] - The CME FedWatch data shows an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with an average expected policy rate of 3.59% by the end of 2025[1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Global stock market optimism has decreased, with precious metal prices rising due to the increased risk of a U.S. government shutdown[10] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.3%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropped by 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively[12] - The dollar index rose by 0.55%, closing at 98.19, while major non-U.S. currencies declined against the dollar[19]