尿素早评：供给压力继续提升-20250929

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of urea continues to increase, and the domestic supply pressure cannot be resolved by domestic demand alone, leading to a weak and volatile spot market [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: the expected renovation of old - fashioned production facilities (old - fashioned facilities over 20 years old account for about 20% of the total, and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and the expected improvement in exports (especially in September - October under the easing of Sino - Indian relations). The space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.30%), in Shanxi it remained unchanged, UR05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and UR09 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China, domestic small - particle urea spot prices remained unchanged. In Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The anthracite price in Shanxi remained unchanged. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The melamine price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Shandong it increased by 83 yuan/ton (1.65%) [1]. 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1676 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1683 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1673 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].