原油季报：基本面支撑，油价有望反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The low crude oil inventory levels in the US and OECD countries, combined with OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, support oil prices. On the supply side, OPEC+ plans to increase production again in October, but the actual increase is lower than expected, and the progress of production increase is uncertain. On the demand side, US crude oil demand is better than in previous years, and domestic crude oil processing demand has increased significantly month - on - month. With the boost of travel consumption, crude oil demand is expected to be further stimulated. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quarterly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Inventory - Due to rising demand, US crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased. Crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels to 414.8 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a 235,000 - barrel increase. Cushing's crude oil inventories increased by 177,000 barrels. US net crude oil imports increased by 1.6 million barrels per day, while exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.48 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels to 216.6 million barrels, against the expected 150,000 - barrel increase. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by 1.7 million barrels to 123 million barrels, more than the expected 494,000 - barrel decrease [4][20]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day. OPEC+ decided to increase the oil production target again in October, starting to lift the second - layer production cut plan (with a cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand) more than a year earlier than planned. Previously, OPEC+ had agreed to increase the production target by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September. However, there are uncertainties on the supply side: OPEC+'s actual production increase is lower than expected; Russia's oil supply is tightened due to sanctions; US shale oil production has reached its ceiling [4][32][41]. 3.1.3 Demand - Refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day, but the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 93%. The total refined oil supply, as a demand indicator, increased by 156,000 barrels per day to 2.079 million barrels per day, 190,000 barrels per day higher than the four - week average of the same period last year. In China, the crude oil processing growth rate accelerated in August, with the industrial crude oil processing volume of 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, and the daily processing volume of 2.047 million tons [4]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Hold long positions [4]. 3.2 Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The document provides detailed data on global oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period commercial inventories from January 2024 to December 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. 3.2.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Illustrates the process from crude oil to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, gasoline, etc., through different processing devices like atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, ethylene cracker, and catalytic cracker [9]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Market - Presents multiple charts related to the futures - spot market, including domestic - foreign price spreads, monthly spreads, INE crude oil futures - spot price spreads, BRENT crude oil term spreads, freight indices, and port freight rates [11][15][16]. 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 US Inventory - US crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased due to rising demand. Charts show historical trends of US crude oil and refined oil inventories from 2019 - 2025 [18][20]. 3.4.2 China Inventory - China's inventory increment declined from June - August due to increased domestic crude oil processing demand. Charts show historical trends of China's crude oil inventory increment [22][25]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts - INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [28][29]. 3.5 Supply Side 3.5.1 OPEC Production - OPEC+ decided to increase production in October, starting to lift the second - layer production cut plan. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day from July. OPEC's 12 - member countries' crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day in August [32][33]. 3.5.2 US Production - Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day. US shale oil production has reached its ceiling, and the growth space is limited due to reduced capital expenditure by oil companies. The number of US oil rigs, a leading indicator of future production, is decreasing [36]. 3.5.3 Global Production - There are uncertainties on the global supply side, including OPEC+'s lower - than - expected production increase, Russia's supply tightening due to sanctions, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [41]. 3.6 Demand Side 3.6.1 China Demand - In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased rapidly, with the industrial crude oil processing volume of 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. China's travel demand is strong, which is expected to drive crude oil consumption. China's 8 - month crude oil imports and refined oil exports data are also provided [47][52][55]. 3.6.2 US Demand - US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day, but the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 93%. The total refined oil supply increased by 156,000 barrels per day, higher than the same period last year. US demand is slightly better than last year seasonally [59][62].