棉花：市场继续聚焦新棉上市

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continues to focus on the listing of new cotton. The domestic cotton spot market is mainly new - cotton pre - sales in the 2025/26 season, with stable to slightly discounted prices and relatively good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 season spot is decreasing. The domestic cotton textile market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, slow de - stocking, and weak prices. ICE cotton lacks upward momentum due to new US cotton listings and poor export sales [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,405 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.92% and a night - session closing price of 13,490 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,610 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.86% decline and a night - session closing price of 19,760 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase. ICE US cotton 12 was at 66.27 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 253,456 lots, a decrease of 68,886 lots from the previous day, and the position was 741,549 lots, an increase of 4,299 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,944 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 6,640 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,397, a decrease of 186 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 12, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,677 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,001 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.83 cents/pound, unchanged. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,497 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: The spread between CF1 - 5 was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot market offers are mostly for 2025/26 new - cotton pre - sales, with stable to slightly discounted prices and good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 spot is decreasing. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton is stable and slightly weak, with the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% at about 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg and the higher purchase price at about 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. The pre - sale price of new cotton in Kashgar in 2025/26 is around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1000 - 1050, for delivery before mid - October. The lower pre - sale price of the 2025/26 new - cotton blind box is 14,650 - 14,750 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1050 - 1100, for delivery at the end of September and before mid - October [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The pure - cotton yarn market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, with cautious purchases by traders and slow de - stocking. The price is negotiated according to the order volume. The price of pure - cotton cloth is stable and slightly weak, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Currently, large new orders for weaving factories are few, and small orders are the main source to maintain production [2]. - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate around 66 cents/pound. The new US cotton has started to be listed, and poor export sales make ICE cotton lack upward momentum [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [5].