棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节，豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to have a limited short - term rebound, and it is advisable to hold a light position during the holiday [1]. - Soybean oil is likely to fluctuate weakly due to the weak performance of US soybeans, and the upside space is difficult to open up [1]. - Global palm oil and soybean oil prices are projected to rise by $100 - 150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightness [3]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 4.6% to a record 17.1 million tons, driven by an increase in palm oil purchases [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Changes: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,236 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; closing price (night session) is 9,278 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase [2]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,162 yuan/ton with a 0.37% decrease; closing price (night session) is 8,178 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 10,162 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase; closing price (night session) is 10,150 yuan/ton with a 0.12% decrease [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: - Palm oil主力: Yesterday's trading volume was 590,776 lots, a decrease of 97,580 lots; open interest was 363,269 lots, an increase of 5,880 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: Yesterday's trading volume was 278,742 lots, a decrease of 83,105 lots; open interest was 535,857 lots, an increase of 8,413 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Yesterday's trading volume was 302,857 lots, a decrease of 98,379 lots; open interest was 354,265 lots, an increase of 6,553 lots [2]. - Spot Prices and Changes: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 9,230 yuan/ton, with a price change of 60 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,550 yuan/ton, with a price change of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,170 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is - 6 yuan/ton [2]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 388 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 8 yuan/ton [2]. - Price Spreads: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 926 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 920 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 1,074 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 1,030 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: 184 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 192 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 236 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 262 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 520 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 484 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Global palm oil and soybean oil prices are expected to rise by $100 - 150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to potential increased biodiesel consumption in the US, Brazil, and Indonesia and limited production growth [3]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to reach a record 17.1 million tons, with palm oil imports likely to surge by 13.4% to 9.3 million tons [5]. - India may increase sunflower oil imports from January to March [6]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [6]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25, 2025 are estimated to be 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease compared to the same period last month [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [7].