生猪：现货底部未现，空单持有

Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Authors: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Numbers: Z0001891 (Zhou Xiaoqiu), Z0018592 (Wu Hao) [1] - Email Addresses: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com (Zhou Xiaoqiu), wuhao8@gtht.com (Wu Hao) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The bottom of the live pig spot market has not been reached, and short positions should be held [1] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year), and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton [2] - Futures Prices: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,575 yuan/ton (down 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), 13,100 yuan/ton (down 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,655 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 38,742 lots (up 7,824 lots from the previous day), 26,927 lots (up 13,770 lots), and 7,332 lots (up 1,890 lots) respectively; the open interests are 85,019 lots (down 4,519 lots from the previous day), 71,622 lots (up 5,120 lots), and 50,862 lots (up 2,386 lots) respectively [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 5 yuan/ton (up 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), -520 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and -75 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are -525 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year-on-year) and 445 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]