申银万国期货早间策略-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September trend of the stock index was more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. Due to some funds' hedging needs at high levels after a long - term uptrend, there was a divergence in long - and short - term forces, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock index. However, in the medium - to long - term, China's capital market is just at the beginning of the strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mainly composed of technology growth stocks, are more aggressive with larger fluctuations and potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (for different delivery months) decreased compared to the previous two days, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.16%. Trading volumes were 35095.00, 3254.00, 71448.00, and 11288.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 2835.00, 367.00, - 3631.00, and - 350.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The closing prices also declined, with decreases from - 0.43% to - 0.48%. Trading volumes were 15109.00, 966.00, 29241.00, and 2910.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 819.00, 301.00, 341.00, and - 420.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The prices dropped by - 1.44% to - 1.48%. Trading volumes were 35918.00, 3743.00, 82089.00, and 14285.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 1087.00, 841.00, 3028.00, and 583.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The prices decreased by - 1.33% to - 1.47%. Trading volumes were 56703.00, 5684.00, 155277.00, and 25326.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 623.00, 1021.00, 8777.00, and 1116.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different changes compared to the previous values [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined, with decreases of - 0.95%, - 0.40%, - 1.37%, and - 1.45% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1]. - Industry Performance: Different industries had different trends. Energy, main consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. showed certain percentage changes in prices [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF contracts (for different delivery months) compared to the CSI 300 index had different values on the previous day and the previous two days [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, with decreases of - 0.65%, - 1.76%, - 1.85%, and - 2.60% respectively [1]. - Overseas Indices: The Hang Seng Index declined by - 1.35%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased by 0.27%, 0.59%, and 0.87% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the labor - age population still has scale advantages and demographic dividends. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, small - passenger cars can pass toll - free on national highways, and the expected cross - regional passenger flow is 23.6 billion person - times, a 3.2% increase from last year. The 2025 Conference on Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power emphasized multiple transportation construction tasks. South Korea will implement a visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29 to next June 30, and the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea is expected to exceed 5 million this year [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metals industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026. From January to August, the national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises. As of September 27, more than 470 policies to stabilize the real - estate market were introduced in about 200 cities (counties) [2].