甲醇日评：关注低多机会-20250929

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and low downstream profit, considering the low price of East China spot, traditional downstream peak season, and potential gas restriction in Iran, the port inventory pressure may decrease, and it is advisable to wait for long - buying opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - Futures Prices: MA01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%) to 2355 yuan/ton, MA05 dropped 4 yuan/ton (-0.17%) to 2384 yuan/ton, and MA09 fell 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) to 2343 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Prices: Increases were seen in some regions like Taicang (up 10 yuan/ton, 0.44% to 2257.50 yuan/ton) and Guangdong (up 15 yuan/ton, 0.67% to 2265 yuan/ton), while prices in some areas remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton (0.24%) to 2090 yuan/ton [1] - Cost Prices: Coal prices decreased, with Bohai Rim Q5500 down 10 yuan/ton (-1.87%) to 525 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 down 15 yuan/ton (-2.49%) to 587.50 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 down 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.22%) to 605 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in some areas remained stable [1] 2. Profit Information - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 328.50 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - based methanol profit stayed at - 422 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Profit: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-32.89%) to - 40.40 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit dropped 21 yuan/ton (-3.49%) to - 623.07 yuan/ton. Acetic acid profit increased 1.08 yuan/ton (0.20%) to 548.11 yuan/ton, while other downstream products' profits remained stable [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2601 first rose then fell, opening and closing at 2355 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 556,255 lots and open interest of 885,132 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is restarting after a short - term shutdown for maintenance [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1]