PP：中期或是震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-29 02:57

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has strengthened significantly recently, stimulating the market to stabilize in the short term. With an increase in maintenance on the supply side and low profit factors leading to low price elasticity at low levels, and a slight improvement in the downstream processing start - up rate on the demand side, the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state before the National Day [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6893, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 229,349, and the open interest decreased by 18,267. The 01 - contract basis was - 193 (compared to - 198 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 (unchanged from the previous day) [1] - Spot Price: In the North China region, the spot price was 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton (compared to 6680 - 6780 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in the South China region, it was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton (compared to 6640 - 6830 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market price was narrowly sorted. Without futures guidance today, most producer prices were stable. Traders sold goods according to their inventory and cost. Some actively sold with slightly lower offers. Most downstream enterprises had completed pre - holiday stocking and were cautious, resulting in limited market inquiries and general trading [2] Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has strengthened, leading to short - term market stability. Supply - side maintenance has increased, and low - profit factors limit price elasticity at low levels. The downstream processing start - up rate has slightly improved, and purchasing follows the "buy - on - rising" pattern. The market is expected to be volatile before the National Day [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, within the range of [- 2,2], indicating a neutral state [3]