节前建议谨慎观望，规避长假期间的不确定性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to strengthen the supply and price stability of coking coal and other raw fuels, reducing market expectations for anti - involution. Coupled with the cautious capital market before the long holiday, the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the short term. It is recommended to stay cautious before the long holiday [6][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Disk Analysis - It includes futures price analysis, spread analysis (basis in dry tons), and futures position net position analysis, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [8][12][13] 3.2 Important Market Information - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and promote economic stability and reasonable prices. As of the end of August, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [16] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 105.22 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31. Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 0.514 million tons to 60.829 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased by 5.35 million tons to 32.357 million tons [20][24] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - It involves indicators such as the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [26][28][29] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 6.41%. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 39.40%. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 0.0038 million tons. At 45 ports, the total inventory was 140.0028 million tons, an increase of 1.992 million tons, the daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.0277 million tons, and the number of ships in port decreased by 5. The Indonesian mining minister stated that if miners meet the requirements related to the land restoration fund deposit, their mining licenses can be restored from the "suspended" state to the "normal" state [31] 3.6 Market Outlook - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has reduced market expectations for anti - involution, and due to the cautious capital market before the long holiday, the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the short term. It is recommended to stay cautious before the long holiday [32] 3.7 Operation Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and be vigilant about the risks of holding positions during the long holiday. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [7][33]