纯碱周报：纯碱供需双弱，边际改善-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand but with marginal improvement. The core contradiction in the market remains the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, the market lacks a clear directional driver and is expected to continue the volatile pattern. Key factors to focus on in the future include the sustainability of inventory reduction, the strength of downstream demand recovery, and whether industry losses will trigger more production cut - off actions. Operational suggestions include: for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash; for options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options [43]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1266 - 1336 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 26, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 fell 19 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.45%, closing at 1293 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of September 25, 2025, the domestic soda ash production last week was 776,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,200 tons, or 4.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.12%, compared with the previous value of 85.53%, a month - on - month increase of 3.59%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 82.15%, a month - on - month increase of 6.62%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 91.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.90% [7][10][12]. 3.2.2 Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.61%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 729,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,300 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 922,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,500 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 104,100 tons, a decline of 5.93%. The inventory in the same period last year was 1.482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 169,500 tons, or 11.44% [8][17]. 3.2.3 Shipment - On September 25, it was reported that the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises that week was 881,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.86%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 113.40%, a month - on - month increase of 7.78 percentage points [20]. 3.2.4 Profit - On September 26, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 37.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production process soda ash was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry - As of September 25, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 160,700 tons, an increase of 0.31% compared with the 18th. The output of national float glass from September 19 - 25, 2025 was 1.1242 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.56% [31]. - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.553 million weight boxes, a decline of 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days were 25.4 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous period [34]. 3.4 Spot Market Situation - The prices of most domestic soda ash products remained stable from September 18 to 25, 2025. The price of float glass increased by 65 yuan/ton, or 5.57%, to 1231 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia increased by 35 yuan/ton, or 1.62%, to 2194 yuan/ton; the price of power coal increased by 14 yuan/ton, or 2.02%, to 707 yuan/ton [40][42].