本周热点前瞻2025-09-29

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a week - ahead preview of economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On September 30 at 09:30, China will release September official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI; on October 1 at 20:15, the US will announce September ADP new employment; at 22:00 on the same day, the US will release September ISM manufacturing PMI; on October 3 at 20:30, the US will announce the September non - farm payroll report [2] - Pay attention to the impacts of domestic macro - policies, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Federal Reserve officials on the futures market [2] This Week's Hotspot Preview September 30 - China's September official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.4), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 50.3). Higher values than previous could help commodity and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3] - China's September SPGI manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.5), and SPGI services PMI is expected to be 52.5 (previous 53). Lower manufacturing PMI may suppress industrial and stock index futures and help treasury bond futures [4] - Germany's June real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0.6% (previous - 1.5%) [5] - The US September Chicago PMI is expected to be 40.5 (previous 41.5). A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures and help gold and silver futures [6] October 1 - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will be closed from October 1 - 8, and September 28 and October 11 will be weekend closures [9] - The US government may 'shut down' on October 1, with a market - estimated probability over 75%. Each week of shutdown may drag down quarterly GDP growth by 15 basis points and delay key economic data releases [10] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the USDA quarterly inventory report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [11] - The eurozone's September CPI initial value: expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) is 2.3% (previous 2.0%), and core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) is 2.5% (previous 2.3%) [12] - The US September ADP new employment is expected to be 48,000 (previous 54,000). A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures and help gold and silver futures [13] - The US September ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.2 (previous 48.7). A higher value may slightly help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures and suppress gold and silver futures [14] - The US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 26. A continued decrease may help crude oil and related commodity futures [15] October 2 - The US Department of Agriculture will release the USDA monthly oilseed crushing report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [16] - The eurozone's August unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.4%) [17] - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 27 are expected to be 215,000 (previous 218,000). A lower value may help industrial futures except gold and silver and suppress gold and silver futures [18] - The US August factory orders monthly rate is expected to be - 0.1% (previous - 1.3%). A higher value may slightly help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures and suppress gold and silver futures [19] October 3 - The US September non - farm payroll report: expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is 39,000 (previous 22,000), unemployment rate is 4.3% (previous 4.3%), and average hourly wage annual rate is 3.7% (previous 3.7%). A slightly higher new non - farm employment may slightly suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [20] - The US September ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52 (previous 52). A slightly higher value may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [21] October 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late September, covering 9 categories and 50 products [22] October 5 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting on oil production policy. A planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [23]