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A股策略周报:节前市场震荡整固,科技催化持续酝酿-20250929
Ping An Securities·2025-09-29 03:00

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations before the holiday, with technology and large-cap defensive styles showing phase-specific performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index increased by 1.96% and 6.47%, respectively. The small-cap index saw deeper declines [2][17] - The U.S. market faced downward pressure due to concerns over high valuations, with the Nasdaq dropping by 1.8% over the week. The core PCE price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating stable inflation [2][3] - Domestic industrial profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August. The equipment manufacturing sector remained a key support, with double-digit profit growth in industries such as railways, aerospace, and electrical machinery [2][5] Recent Dynamics - Industrial profits turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% from January to August, driven by policy effects and low base effects. The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase, particularly in specialized equipment and electronics [3][4] - The government has rolled out new growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and construction materials, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel sector [5][6] Market Performance - In the last week, the A-share market saw most sectors rise, with the semiconductor silicon wafer index leading with a 13.1% increase. The power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors also performed well, with gains of 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51%, respectively [13][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained above 2 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation despite fluctuations [2][17] Policy Tracking - Recent policies include the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Plan" and measures to promote service exports, which aim to enhance the competitiveness of key sectors and support economic recovery [5][6]