Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - finance: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - Agriculture and livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - Stock Indices: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - Treasury Bonds: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - Glass: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - Aluminum: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - Nickel: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - Tin: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - Caustic Soda: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - Styrene: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - Rubber: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - Urea: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - Methanol: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - Polyolefin: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - Apples: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - Jujubes: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - Pigs: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - Eggs: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - Corn: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - Soybean Meal: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - Oils: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]
期货市场交易指引：2025年09月29日-20250929
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-29 03:00