黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250929

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: This week, gold futures prices showed a strong - side oscillatory pattern of "rallying, pulling back, and then stabilizing again". Influenced by factors such as the market's expectation of further easing after the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks boosting safe - haven demand, and the resonance of increased global gold ETF holdings and strong domestic consumption demand. Although there was a short - term pullback due to the resilience of US economic data and profit - taking by long positions, the medium - and long - term supporting factors remained unchanged, and the price quickly recovered and reached a new phased high. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks, combined with a surge in investment demand, provide multiple supports [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to mainly oscillate at a high level, with support at 805 - 812 and resistance at 838 - 845. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The gold contract 2512 faces pressure from profit - taking at high levels, with support at 845 - 850. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [11]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the main silver futures contract 2512 showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, with a weekly increase of 2.91%, and the closing price reached a record high since listing. It was mainly supported by the financial attribute premium under the strengthened Fed interest - rate cut expectation, the safe - haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, and the fundamental support formed by industrial demand (photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles) and the supply - demand gap. The capital side shows that long - position confidence is stable, with both open interest and trading volume increasing simultaneously. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on interest - rate cut expectations, policy signals from Fed officials, and the position - holding risks brought by China's "National Day" holiday [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2512 was expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 9500 - 9800. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2512 is expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 10400 - 10500. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [36]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]